Toronto at Atlanta

Atlanta won Tuesday's series opener 4-3 in what came down to a Matt Olson homer off Kevin Gausman in the sixth inning — not a night where the Braves were particularly dominant, just timely. Wednesday's pitching matchup is a different animal. Grant Holmes goes to the mound for Atlanta with a 3.95 ERA on the season, but his underlying numbers — the metrics that separate sustainable performance from what the scoreboard shows — point to a pitcher running closer to true 5.00 effectiveness. His strikeout rate sits below 22 percent, which limits his ability to command games before the bullpen gets involved. Patrick Corbin has been a functional fit in Toronto's rotation this season, sitting 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA, and the Blue Jays have the lineup to capitalize on Holmes' regression tonight. The market is pricing Atlanta's 41-20 record, not Holmes' specific profile. I'm grabbing Toronto at plus money — Max Play.