Toronto at Atlanta

Atlanta is rolling at 40-20, and Bryce Elder has earned his breakout tag — a 2.50 ERA through 12 appearances and underlying numbers that confirm it is real. On paper, this game belongs to the Braves. The piece that changes the picture is Kevin Gausman, who has not allowed more than one earned run in his last three consecutive starts. When Gausman is locked in like this, he is as good as anyone pitching in any league on any given night, and he is clearly locked in right now. At a slight underdog price, you are essentially getting a coin-flip number on a pitcher in the middle of the best stretch of his season. The market is pricing this game based on Atlanta's season record, not enough on today's specific arms. Gausman holds the fort, and Toronto gets the win tonight. Take the Blue Jays.