Tampa Bay at St. Louis

Tampa Bay had a +31 run differential last year, and pitching remains the strength of the team. Drew Rasmussen gets the nod, going 10-5 in 2025 with a 2.76 ERA, holding batters to a .214 average. He allowed two runs in his first four starts last March/April (20+ innings), including no runs in a 6-1 win in his first start in five innings. St. Louis was outscored by 65 runs last season, the fourth-worst differential in the NL. They're off a losing campaign and are rebuilding on the fly, leaning towards youth after letting some veterans walk. The offense was 19th in runs scored, 18th in on-base percentage, 20th in steals, and 27th in slugging. Matthew Liberatore comes off an 8-12 season with a 4.21 ERA. His first two starts last April were awful (12 innings, 14 hits, 8 runs), losses to the Angels (9-7) and Pirates (8-4). Play Tampa Bay.