Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Tampa Bay scored seven runs Saturday, five of them in the last three innings, and the ALCS is tied at two with Tampa Bay still the favorite in Cleveland. That price rests on a 98-win regular season against Cleveland’s 85. Parker Messick has the better history with this opponent: three starts against Tampa Bay this year, Game 2 among them, and two earned runs allowed in 18 1/3 innings. The three runs he gave up in Game 2 were all unearned. Drew Rasmussen is excellent too, with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, so that edge is small. The bullpens are where I see a real gap. Tampa Bay’s relievers have allowed 8 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings this series, a 5.27 ERA. Cleveland’s have allowed 7 in 21 innings, Saturday’s late runs included, and Cleveland’s bullpen ranked sixth in the majors in ERA this season to Tampa Bay’s 14th. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski last pitched Thursday, while Ian Seymour and Kevin Kelly have each appeared in three of Tampa Bay’s four games. I’m taking Cleveland on the moneyline tonight.