Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Atlanta is staring down a sweep after getting outscored 14-3 across the first two games of this series, with both AJ Smith-Shawver and Reynaldo López getting knocked out early and the bullpen forced to soak up innings both nights. Martín Pérez takes the ball for the Braves today, and while his last start against Philadelphia was a short, ugly one, his four starts before that were a lot sharper than that single line suggests. Nick Martinez has had a fine season for Tampa Bay, 14-4 with a strong ERA, but he's been inconsistent his last few times out, including a six-run, four-inning outing against Toronto last month. Atlanta enters with a slightly worse record than the Rays, but this is exactly the kind of spot I want on a small home favorite that's dropped the first two of a series: a team that still has more talent than its last two performances suggest, at home, with its back against the wall. I don't need Pérez to be dominant, just competent enough to keep this one manageable while a lineup that's underperformed the last two nights finds its footing again. Atlanta is the play on the moneyline today.