St. Louis at Washington

It is rare to see the Nationals favored after their 66-96 record last season. St. Louis, by contrast, finished six games below .500 last year. The 5–5 Cardinals have a better record than the Nationals this season. So the value play is on St. Louis in a pitching matchup between Matthew Liberatore and Cade Cavalli. Liberatore has followed a promising spring training with a 1.64 ERA in his first two starts spanning 11 innings. St. Louis is 2-0 in Liberatore's two outings this season. Cavalli had a 4.25 ERA and a fat 1.48 WHIP last year. He's had a bad start against the Cubs and a good start against the Phillies this season. The Nationals scored six runs in the eighth inning to beat the Cardinals, 9-6, last night. Prior to that game, Washington had lost five consecutive games. The Nationals are giving up an average of 8.6 runs per game during their last five games. Washington had the worst bullpen ERA in the majors last season at 5.59 ERA. The Nationals' bullpen ERA has been even worse this season at 6.34. Take the Cardinals.