St. Louis at San Francisco

Andre Pallante's turned into one of the better stories in the Cardinals' rotation this year, sitting at a dozen wins and a 3.51 ERA, but this afternoon isn't about him holding a lineup down. It's about what's happening on the other side. Blade Tidwell takes the ball for a Giants team that's given him nothing to work with, and his 0-2 record and a 4.43 ERA undersell how often he's put runners on for free. San Francisco's staff is walking too many hitters and leaving too many pitches over the plate, with a team ERA that's crept toward 4.40 and the bullpen doing plenty of the damage. The Cardinals aren't overwhelming offensively, but they don't need to be against a rookie-caliber arm scuffling for outs, and Pallante doesn't have to be perfect for this number to clear with San Francisco floundering in last place and playing out a lost season. Tidwell's control issues are the kind of thing that turns a modest total into an easy one, and I don't need St. Louis to blow the doors off, just enough contact and enough free passes to push this pace where it's headed. Take the OVER this afternoon.