St. Louis at Milwaukee

I had St. Louis in this series opener last night, and the Cardinals came back from a 4-1 deficit to tie it in the seventh before Milwaukee put up four in the eighth and won 8-4. The Brewers are 101-59, the Cardinals are 77-83 with three wins in their last ten, and I'm going back to St. Louis anyway. This is a pitching bet. Quinn Mathews has a 2.37 ERA over his last five starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in every one and pitching into the seventh in two of them. Dustin May has gone the other way since Milwaukee acquired him. His ERA with the Brewers is 5.61, and he has failed to finish the fourth inning in five of his last seven starts. Milwaukee's bullpen ranks third, and that is the strongest case against this. It still can't cover the early innings, and Milwaukee has already locked up the top seed in the National League. St. Louis is also drawing a far bigger share of the money than of the tickets, which is the kind of split professional bettors leave behind. Take St. Louis tonight.