St. Louis at Cincinnati

The Reds have played well down the stretch as they have been 10-5 over their last 15 games. Bronson Arroyo has also been pitching at the top of his game, as the Reds are now 10-4 in his last 14 starts. In his last five starts, Arroyo has been unhittable, posting a 1.24 ERA with the Reds beating three teams with winning records. The Cardinals appeared destined to make a wildcard run, but those hopes were dashed in the face of a current five game losing streak, and a 4-11 run over their last 15 games. The Cards are also 4-9 in Braden Looper's last 13 starts. The intensity is gone for St. Louis, while Arroyo and the Reds have performed well in September, so I will back the Reds here.