Seattle at Tampa Bay

James Shields has quietly been great this season. Hidden under his 11-10 record is the fact that he owns a 2.83 ERA in 25 games. At home, it drops to 2.15 and over his last three starts, 1.48. It really doesn't get much better than that. Seattle can't hit weak pitchers so how are they supposed to find any success against Shields today? The Mariners average just 3.4 runs per game (3.2 in day games). Tampa Bay's offense isn't a whole lot better but they won't be asked to do a whole lot today to secure the win. Seattle is just 23-43 this season vs. winning teams including 7-24 in the second half of the season. Take the Rays to win. I also like the UNDER. Shields is pitching as well as anyone this season and both teams lack offensive punch. In their last ten games vs. AL teams that average under 4.8 runs per game, Seattle is 9-1 UNDER. On the road this season, the M's are 16-5 UNDER vs. AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. Dating back to last season, Tampa Bay is 11-1 UNDER at home vs. AL opponents that average 3.7 or fewer runs per game. Take Tampa Bay and the UNDER here.