Seattle at Milwaukee

Milwaukee put a 22-0 beating on Seattle last night, the kind of laugher that makes a favorite look unbeatable and pushes a line further than the two teams actually warrant. One lopsided score doesn't rewrite who these clubs are. The Brewers are a legitimate 78-48 and lead the NL Central, but no team is worth an extra run and a half against its opponent just because it won by 22 the night before, and the market routinely overreacts to exactly that kind of number. Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, working a 3.28 ERA and a 9-7 record, a cleaner season than Milwaukee's Dustin May, who sits at 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA. The Mariners have scuffled, dropping seven of their last ten with an offense running just a .229 team average, but this isn't a bet on Seattle being good. It's a bet that Milwaukee isn't a run-and-a-half better than a team it just happened to blow out. Buying back in after a game like that, with the better starter on the mound and the number padded by one outlier score, is exactly the kind of spot I like. We're on the Mariners with the extra run tonight.