Seattle at Milwaukee

Milwaukee has been the best team in the National League for much of this season, and a 77-48 record tells that story clearly enough. But tonight I'm looking past the record and straight at the arms on the mound, and that's where this number gets interesting. Bryce Miller's 4-6 mark undersells him. His WHIP sits at 0.95, one of the tightest command numbers of any starter Seattle has run out there this year, and that kind of control tends to keep a lineup from ever getting comfortable. He did get roughed up his last time out against Detroit, but that came in the middle of a stretch where his overall body of work still points to a pitcher missing more barrels than his win-loss column shows. Kyle Harrison has been excellent for Milwaukee at 9-3 with a 2.99 ERA, but his last start was the worst of his season, allowing 10 hits in less than five innings against San Diego. That's the kind of outing that should make backers of a short favorite nervous, and it's exactly the spot where a plus-money underdog with a pitcher this locked in becomes live. The gap between these two teams' records says one thing. The gap between these two pitchers' most recent starts says something different. Take the Mariners as my MLB Game of the Week.