Seattle at Miami

Seattle has dropped the first two games of this series, an extra-innings gut punch and a shutout, and the division-leading Mariners arrive tonight looking to avoid the sweep. The matchup finally tilts back their way. Bryce Miller takes the mound with the staff's best ERA at 1.71, and Miami counters with Janson Junk, working back into the rotation after a stretch on the injured list and carrying a 4.80 ERA over 11 starts this year. Miami has also leaned hard on its bullpen to survive both wins in this series, a 10-inning nailbiter and a one-run squeaker, and that workload catches up fast on a third straight night. We cashed Miami on the runline three nights ago against Las Vegas on the strength of a fresh, controlled arm, and tonight the shoe is on the other foot. I like Seattle's better arm and the fresher pen to put real distance on the scoreboard. Seattle is 20-25 on the road, but Miller gives this staff its best look of the series, and a get-right spot after two frustrating losses tends to produce exactly that kind of runaway. Take Seattle to win on the runline.