Seattle at Colorado

Colorado played Seattle to the wire on Friday, dropping a 5-4 decision at home as a fading, elimination-ready roster faced a Mariners team still clinging to playoff math. That's the version of the Rockies my model likes tonight, not the one buried at 56-98. Bryce Miller takes the ball for Seattle carrying a 3-7 record and a 4.22 ERA, numbers that reflect real slippage from where he sat earlier this year, and Colorado's lineup gets a look at him with the thin air at Coors already working in the offense's favor. On the other side, Jose Quintana comes off the 60-day injured list for his first big-league start since May, a fresh look with a different shape and pace than anything Seattle has seen from this staff recently. Yes, his workload will be capped, and the bullpen will have to eat innings behind him, but that same relief group just held a laboring lineup to one Seattle run of breathing room a night ago. Miller has been the more hittable arm lately; the Rockies are getting a new challenge on the mound, and the number on Colorado is paying more than it should for a home team that just proved it belongs in a one-run game with this Mariners club. We're on Colorado on the moneyline tonight.