San Francisco at Pittsburgh

San Francisco's bullpen carries a 4.17 ERA, ranking near the bottom of the league. They've blown nearly as many save opportunities this year (22) as they've actually saved (26), and will never live down the ninth-inning meltdown against Cincinnati last week, in which they allowed seven runs. The Giants were previously 2,208-0 all-time when leading by six or more runs in the ninth inning. It matters because today's starter, Hayden Tidwell, isn't the kind of guy who takes the bullpen out of the equation. He's 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA, and if he's laboring by the fourth or fifth, that shaky relief corps is right there waiting to pour gas on it. On the other side, Lake Bachar is 1-0 with a 2.46 ERA in his brief run in Pittsburgh's rotation, but he's a converted reliever still getting stretched out, and he's been homer-prone throughout his career, even working shorter stints. The Pirates have scored 4.9 runs a game this season, one of the more productive lineups in baseball, and they get a Giants pitching staff that's failed them from the rotation to the pen all year. Both offenses have paths to run production here, and my read says the total is priced too low for how this one can unfold. We're banking on that number getting cleared. Take the OVER this afternoon.