San Francisco at Miami

Max Meyer is 7-0 this season and is carrying one of the better ERA marks in the National League. That record has made the market treat Miami like a powerhouse — but the Marlins are 38-38, a .500 club whose overall output doesn't match the narrative their ace has built. Wins are a team statistic. Meyer's unblemished record reflects excellent pitching and favorable support, but it is not a reliable indicator of how this specific game plays out. San Francisco sends Trevor McDonald to the mound, a starter whose 2-4 record understates his actual competitiveness in road spots. The Giants carry legitimate middle-of-the-order contributors in Matt Chapman and Luis Arraez and have kept games close against comparable opponents this season. At plus money, San Francisco doesn't need to outpitch Meyer. They need to stay in the game long enough for a Miami offense operating behind an average supporting cast to fail to put it away. Side with the Giants this afternoon.