San Diego at Tampa Bay

The Padres have surprised many people with their season-to-date play, but there are signs of the bloom coming off the rose as they have been just 10-9 over their last 19 games. James Shields is a much better pitcher than reflected in his 4.50 ERA. He had two awful games where he allowed 17 runs in just 8.2 innings. He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 12 of his 13 other starts, so I would expect to see more of that here. The Rays have been mighty potent in this spot as they are 55-18 in their last 73 as a home favorite from -151 to -200. The Padres, meanwhile, have taken the doughnut at 0-6 in interleague play as a dog of +151 to +200.