San Diego at Tampa Bay

I had this exact game last night and watched San Diego blow a three-run lead in the seventh, Tampa Bay answering back to steal it in the final innings. That loss says more about a shaky bullpen inning than it does about the Padres themselves, and I'm not walking away from this series because of it. Robbie Ray gets the ball today off three straight starts of two earned runs or fewer, exactly the kind of length that keeps last night's bullpen mess out of the equation. Drew Rasmussen counters for the Rays with a strong season overall, but his last time out was his worst of the stretch, five innings and five runs allowed to Toronto. Tampa Bay is the better team in the standings and I understand why the board has them favored at home, but the price on San Diego reflects more fear than form off one bad bullpen inning. Ray gives this a real chance to look completely different than last night's ending. Take San Diego on the moneyline at plus money this afternoon.