San Diego at Milwaukee

San Diego lost Game 1 by a single run after Ty France's ninth-inning drive, hit at 105 mph, hit the roof and came down in Jackson Chourio's glove for an out. The Padres out-hit Milwaukee 9-7 and chased Jacob Misiorowski after four innings. Milwaukee is 103-59 to San Diego's 91-71, and the price reflects that. Logan Henderson is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA, but this is his first postseason start. He also lost to these Padres on August 10, when Xander Bogaerts was out of the lineup and Dustin Harris and Ethan Salas were still in Triple-A. All three are in the lineup now. Michael King is 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts, and he takes the ball for a club that swept the Cubs in the wild-card round. San Diego has lost only four of its last 24 games, and Saturday was one of them. A rookie making his first playoff start against a lineup that looks different from the one that beat him is the soft spot I see in this number. The Padres need to win only about 44 times in 100 to break even, which is the kind of price our ledger is built on, and I make the Padres the play this afternoon.