San Diego at Cincinnati

I had San Diego on the moneyline (GOW) last night in this same series, and the Padres backed it up with a 5-0 shutout of Cincinnati's pitching staff. Nick Lodolo gets the ball for the Reds tonight, and his season has slipped in the wrong direction: a 5.24 ERA, and he's failed to get through five innings in three of his last five turns, including a three-and-a-third-inning, six-run collapse against Arizona. That workload keeps putting Cincinnati's bullpen on the mound early, and this pitching staff ranks 27th in the majors in runs allowed per game as a result. San Diego's lineup is opportunistic enough to keep piling on against exactly that kind of exposure, and it doesn't need Randy Vásquez to be at his best for this number to clear, just its own offense doing what it did one night ago. Cincinnati can match blows too, an offense that's held its own against better arms than what Lodolo's staff will throw out for support tonight. Take the OVER tonight.