Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh is first in the NL Central, playing its fourth straight road game. They've been a big surprise after going 62-100 last year, but let's remember the schedule has been soft facing a lot of bad pitching. The Pirates have faced three last-place teams in Washington, Colorado, and St. Louis. They've also faced the Reds eight times, a team currently ranked second-to-last in the Central after going 62-100 season. The best team the Pirates faced was Houston, and they lost two of three at home while getting outscored 19-9 by the defending champs. Tampa Bay's offense is No. 1 in runs, on-base percentage, and slugging, while the pitching is No. 1 in ERA (3.10) and third in the bullpen (2.97). The Rays are 23-5 as a favorite of -110 or higher, 40-9 as home chalk of -150 or more, and 58-28 at home versus a bullpen that throws 3.2+ innings per game. Play Tampa Bay.