Pittsburgh at San Diego

Paul Skenes still has swing-and-miss stuff, but the command has slipped, and that's what I'm building tonight's total around. His last time out against Detroit, he lasted just four and a third innings, walking four and allowing three runs, the kind of short start that pushes extra work onto Pittsburgh's bullpen far earlier than a team wants. That pen sits in the middle of the pack in relief ERA with a committee approach at the back end, and I don't love it holding a lead or a tie for five-plus innings against a San Diego lineup that has enough pop to make a shaky reliever pay. Michael King has been terrific on the other side, going at least six innings in each of his last three starts and sitting at a 3.38 ERA on the year, with a Padres bullpen that ranks among the best in baseball behind him. But King and a good pen shutting the door doesn't erase what Pittsburgh's lineup has done all season: at 63-69 the Pirates are well under .500, yet they're actually outscoring San Diego per game, 4.95 runs to 4.31, with the pitching and defense the reason they're behind in the standings, not the bats. That's the same read that has me covered on the run line: I don't need Pittsburgh to win this outright, just to hang within a run against a Padres team that hasn't shown it can consistently pull away from an offense this capable, even with its ace on the mound. Take the OVER tonight, and bet Pittsburgh to win on the runline.