Pittsburgh at Miami

Pittsburgh has lost two straight and dropped seven of its last ten, the kind of stretch that makes a plus-money run line look like a trap. But look at where that record is coming from: the Pirates are hitting .256 as a team with 602 runs scored this season, both better marks than Miami's offense has put up, and the staff bleeding out those late-inning losses isn't walking to the mound tonight. Carmen Mlodzinski carries a 3.51 ERA into this one, a full run better than Janson Junk's 4.63 on the other side. Miami has won three straight and looks like the sharper team on paper, but that streak hasn't had to answer a starter this good yet. Pittsburgh is getting a short favorite's price here for a reason: this is a real mismatch on the mound even if the standings don't show it. Take Pittsburgh on the runline tonight.