Pittsburgh at Houston

Pittsburgh sends Paul Skenes to the mound tonight — the reigning NL Cy Young winner, 75 strikeouts this season, a 2.89 ERA — and the market has priced this accordingly, installing the Pirates as road favorites. Spencer Arrighetti counters for Houston, and the numbers say the market has it backwards. Arrighetti is 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA, one of the best marks in baseball this season, carrying an Astros staff that has absorbed more catastrophic injury losses than any rotation should. Houston has also been banged up on offense. Carlos Correa is done for the year following ankle surgery. Jose Altuve is working his way back from an oblique strain. That injury toll is already priced into this number, which is why Arrighetti goes out as the underdog despite outperforming Skenes in every surface stat this season. The market is paying for Pittsburgh's record and Skenes' reputation. I'm taking advantage and backing the home side tonight. Take Houston.