Pittsburgh at Colorado

Colorado comes into this finale having taken the first two games of the series, but the pitching matchup for Sunday doesn't give them the same kind of support. Michael Lorenzen is 2-8 this season with a 7.13 ERA, and while he was noticeably better in his two most recent starts, that kind of sustained damage tells you what the baseline is. A two-start stretch of clean outings against lesser offenses doesn't reset a seven-plus ERA. Pittsburgh counters with Jared Jones, whose numbers have been rough as well, but Jones is facing a Rockies lineup that is 28-47 on the season and hasn't shown the consistent damage production that other NL clubs bring. The Pirates carry real run-scoring capacity — Brandon Lowe has been one of the more dangerous power hitters in the lineup this year with 18 home runs and 49 RBI, and at altitude, Pittsburgh's offense tends to find gaps it can't find elsewhere. Against Lorenzen, who has been giving up runs in bunches for most of the year, getting to two-plus is well within reach. At this number on the runline, the value is clear against one of the worst teams in baseball. Play Pittsburgh on the runline today.