Pittsburgh at Colorado

Kyle Freeland is 1-6 with an 8.06 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP through ten starts in 2026 — and those numbers aren't a slow start, they're a season-long pattern. He surrendered eight earned runs in four innings in late May, followed by five more in five-plus innings a week later. His command is shaky, his arm is coming back from a shoulder issue, and he's now pitching at home, where the air is thin, and the offense has every advantage. Bubba Chandler brings a 4.76 ERA and some walk issues of his own, but he went five-plus solid innings in his last time out against Miami — two runs, three hits — and comes in with positive momentum. Pittsburgh has enough offense to exploit a pitcher who's been surrendering nearly a run per inning this season, and the plus-money price on a two-run margin is the kind of number worth backing when the opposing arm is this compromised. Back the Pirates on the runline tonight.