Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Shane Drohan's ERA and FIP both look clean on paper, but the last three starts have told a different story: he's carrying a 5.54 ERA over that stretch and averaging fewer than 77 adjusted pitches per start all season, which means Milwaukee's bullpen absorbs real innings regardless of how his outing opens. That's meaningful exposure at plus money. Aaron Nola has been inconsistent in 2026, but some of that traces back to a .337 BABIP, which sits well above where it should be given the quality of contact he's allowing. His walk numbers have improved sharply in recent outings, and one sharp Nola start closes the gap on this number in a hurry. The Brewers are the better team, and the market reflects it. But the price is right to catch Drohan's recent cracks widening on a night when Nola's command has quietly been trending the right direction. Play Philadelphia tonight.