Philadelphia at Los Angeles

Philadelphia stole Game 2 on Saturday night 4-3, snapping Los Angeles's six-game winning streak, and now the Dodgers come back to Dodger Stadium in a series finale with something to prove and a dramatically superior pitching matchup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits at a 3.09 ERA and 59 strikeouts through 10 starts — his peripherals are cleaner than his 4-4 record suggests, and this is his home park. Andrew Painter is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1-8 ATS in his nine starts, and 0-5 in every game he's started as a road underdog this season. The Phillies are carrying significant injury attrition — key lineup pieces unavailable — and are now 9.5 games out of first place, facing a Dodgers offense that leads the NL in run production and is backed into a bounce-back spot at home. The market gave Philadelphia a slight lean off yesterday's win, compressing the Dodgers' price into short favorite range — shorter than the starting pitching quality gap and Painter's road splits justify. The value is on Los Angeles based on the Yamamoto-Painter gap and Painter's historically poor record when starting on the road as a dog. Take the Dodgers