Philadelphia at Los Angeles

The Phillies dropped the series opener Friday night, 4-2, as Zack Wheeler allowed four home runs, including one to Shohei Ohtani, in a tough outing against a red-hot Dodgers lineup. But tonight’s pitching matchup flips the narrative. Jesús Luzardo takes the ball for Philadelphia at 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA and 72 strikeouts opposite Roki Sasaki, who has been one of the more mispriced arms in the National League this year — and not in the Dodgers’ favor. Sasaki sits at a 4.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season, and the command issues that plagued him early have never been fully resolved. His FIP of 5.54 confirms the struggles are real, not just bad luck, with a walk rate of 3.54 per nine innings. Luzardo, meanwhile, has a strikeout-heavy profile — 66 punchouts and a 1.31 WHIP — that plays well against a Dodgers lineup that chases. Philadelphia is sitting around a coin flip on the moneyline at +108, yet they’re sending the more reliable arm tonight. The market is still reacting to last night’s result and the Dodgers’ six-game win streak while discounting how hittable Sasaki remains. The value is on Philadelphia based on the starter gap and the market’s overreaction to one bad Wheeler outing. Take the Phillies.