Philadelphia at Atlanta

The last time Jesús Luzardo faced Atlanta, he threw a two-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts in a 1-0 win on September 7. Then his left shoulder flared up; he landed on the injured list, and his only work since is a four-pitch inning on Sunday. That layoff is why Philadelphia is priced this long this afternoon, and the Phillies say they don’t know what to expect. Game 1 comes after an off day, though, and Andrew Painter is available behind him to cover the middle innings. Atlanta has the better record at 94-68 to 88-74 and won nine of 13 meetings, and Chris Sale’s 2.16 ERA ranks third in baseball. The Phillies still got five earned runs off him across 13 innings in two September starts. Atlanta’s bats also sag against left-handers, from a .730 OPS against righties to .696 against lefties. Most of the tickets are on the Braves, but the dollars are split far closer to even. At these odds, the Phillies need to win this only a little more than a third of the time to show a profit, so take Philadelphia this afternoon.