Oakland at Kansas City

These two teams on the surface look fairly equal. Nothing could be further from the truth. While Kansas City won 89 games and Oakalnd 88, that's misleading. Pythagorean analysis (thanks Bill James) tell us that based on runs scored vs. runs allowed, the A's are really more like a 100-win team while the Royals are more like a 83-win team! Yes, we know the Atheltics struggled down the stretch, but they righted the ship and made the playoffs and now gets to go with last year's World Series hero, Jon Lester, tonight. Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season's World Series for Boston and has gone 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since Oakland acquired him from the Red Sox. He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season - two of the wins came with Oakland - and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. The Athletics are 4-0 in Lester's last four starts against the American League Central. You can't trust James Shields at home in this big game, as he's 4-6 at home this season where opponents hit .272 off him. The Royals are 2-6 in Shields' last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Shields went 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six postseason starts with the Tampa Bay Rays before being dealt to the Royals, as well. Kansas City is 1-6 at home against a team with a winning record, so grab the dog and their big game ace. Play the better team. Take the A's.