New York at Toronto

We backed Toronto as a home underdog against Boston earlier this week and cashed, and I like circling back to that same well tonight against the Yankees. The Blue Jays sit under .500 at 59-64, well behind New York's 68-53 mark, and the Yankees have already taken four of seven meetings between these AL East rivals this season. But New York hasn't been running anybody off the field lately. Three of its last five games have been decided by a single run, including an extra-inning loss to Atlanta and Wednesday's 1-0 loss to Seattle. That's a team squeaking by, not steamrolling anyone, and it is a short-money favorite tonight. Toronto took three of four from Boston in the series that just wrapped up, with Wednesday's lopsided finale the outlier, not the trend. Gerrit Cole is a legitimate arm on the mound for New York, but my numbers have certain teams showing real value as home underdogs in spots like this one. Back the Blue Jays on the moneyline tonight.