New York at San Diego

New York and San Diego have needed extra innings and a blowout to settle the first two games of this series, and the posted total for the rubber match looks priced for a pitchers' duel that the full season numbers don't really support. Gerrit Cole carries a strong ERA, but he's allowed multiple earned runs in three of his last five starts, a sign the swing-and-miss stuff hasn't been automatic all summer. Michael King has been outstanding across his last two turns, both scoreless and both stretching past six innings, but San Diego's staff ERA on the year says some runs get through even on his best nights. New York is scoring just over four and a half runs a game and San Diego isn't far behind, and blending each team's own scoring pace against the other side's runs allowed points to a run environment that clears the total rather than settling under it. I opened this series on New York and it slipped away in extra innings, and neither side has been easy to trust in a series this even. Take the OVER this afternoon.