New York at Minnesota

Dean Kremer has been a mess lately, and I won't pretend otherwise. His ERA over his last several turns sits in double digits, and Minnesota's rotation has offered little resistance all month. That's not the case for tonight's total. The Twins are buried in last place with a lineup that ranks in the bottom half of the league in scoring, and whatever Kremer surrenders, Minnesota still has to match it against a Yankees pitching staff that has been one of the stingiest in the sport all season. New York's team ERA sits near the top of the league, and Will Warren doesn't need a shutdown outing himself when the bullpen behind him has been this reliable all year. This total isn't about either starter dazzling. It's about a light-hitting Minnesota offense trying to keep pace on the scoreboard against the better run-prevention unit in this park tonight, and that's been a losing proposition for the Twins most of this season. The posted total leaves room for the Yankees to win comfortably and still come in UNDER. Back the UNDER tonight.