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New York at Cleveland

October 4, 2007
img6:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Cleveland +115 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 4)
Result:
WIN

The Yankees left their fans with a lot of doubt as they opened the season with a 22-29 record and limped into the All-Star break under .500. They used an injection of youthful home-grown pitching to turn a nightmare into a success story, and here they are once again playing in October. The Indians stayed near the top of the AL Central the entire year, and rode a streak of their own to wrap up the division. The Yankees stole all the headlines with their amazing run while Cleveland remained under the radar. The Indians actually finished the last quarter of the season four games better than the Yankees. The Yankees were 27-16 in their last 43, while the Tribe was an amazing 31-12 which included finishing 15-3 at home. They were swept by the Yankees six games to none during the regular season, but one thing is different. The Yankees have not seen C.C. Sabathia in three years. The Yankees struggles against pitchers they haven't seen is well documented and this isn't a rookie. Sabathia is a seasoned, high-caliber #1 starter. The Indians won all of Sabathia's final six starts, and he has been murder on left-handed batters allowing only a .203 average against. The Yankees are a left-hand hitting team, and have had no success on the road facing lefthanders. The final tally is just 5-14. Those 19 games featured the Bronx Bombers getting shutout three times. They were shutout just five times in their other 143 games. The Yankees ace, Chien Ming Wang, gets the ball. There is a night and day version of Wang. His first year, 2005, Wang had a 3.55 ERA at the Stadium and 4.65 on the road. Last year he threw 3.03 at the Stadium, and 4.35 on the road. This season he is at 2.75 at home and 4.91 on the road. Notice a pattern? Wang has been lights out at home, but less than average on the road. This season more than two runs worse on the road than at home. For the entire season, the Indians gave up just 3.88 runs per game in Sabathia's starts, which includes the bullpen. That is less than what Wang himself has allowed in any season on the road in pinstripes. Hotter team, better pitcher playing at home with the better matchup as a dog? We'll take it!

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New York Yankees
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Cleveland Indians
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12
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