New York at Boston

Connelly Early's last start told you exactly where he is: after getting tagged for 22 hits and five home runs across his three previous outings, the 24-year-old left-hander went on the road and shut the Mariners down for six innings, one run, two hits. The 2.95 ERA through 11 starts this year has been real, and tonight he gets the ball at home against a Yankees lineup that has been one of the better offensive clubs in the AL but hasn't yet seen the version of Early who just went to Seattle and found his mechanics. Cameron Schlittler is one of the better pitching stories in the American League this season, and the market has priced him accordingly. But the posted total frames this as a tight game, and Early is capable of delivering one. At the price Boston is offering tonight, the Red Sox don't need to outpitch New York. They need Early to hold the Yankees to two or three runs for six innings and hand it to the bullpen with a lead. Boston is live tonight in a spot that has historically favored home clubs coming off a difficult series loss. Play the Red Sox.