New York at Baltimore

New York's offense is No. 1 in runs scored, second in on-base percentage and slugging. Starter Gerrit Cole's ERA is terrific at home but 4.25 on the road and he has a 4.20 ERA versus Baltimore this season. The Yankees are on a 12-2 run OVER the total, 10-2 OVER against a righty starter. Baltimore is 12-4 OVER at home against an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better. Starter Jordan Lyles (4.76 ERA) comes off a 7-5 loss to Tampa Bay. He's faced the Yankees three times already, one a 6-4 victory and another a 12-8 defeat. When he starts, his teams are 91-65 OVER the total as an underdog, including 29-14 OVER as a home dog of +125 or more. Play New York/Baltimore OVER the total.