New York at Washington

Oliver Perez is one of the top pitchers in baseball, but has flown under the radar since joining the Mets. Perez has allowed 3 runs or less in 25 of 33 starts (75.8% of the time). Compare that to Johan Santana's 26 of 38 (68.4% of the time), and you can see from where the value comes. The Mets are also 10-0 to the -1.5 runline when they win a road start by Perez. Shawn Hill is way behind, and has made just one ineffective start. The Nats are just 7-16 in his 23 career starts for them, and just 2-7 to the +1.5 runline in his home losses. We like the Mets to come away with a convincing win.