New York at St. Louis

The Mets exploded last night for 12 runs. I don't think they'll do something like that again. But, I do think they will win with Glavine on the mound. Glavine hasn't allowed a run yet in the playoffs and over his last three starts he's gone 19 innings with no runs and just 11 hits. He's opposed by Jeff Weaver who is just 2-7 on the season at home but has done well of late too (2.75 ERA over his last three starts). Teams typically don't explode offensively two games in a row and this total is high based on last night's outcome. With these two pitchers on the mound, the way they have played lately, this should be a low-scoring drag-it-out contest. LCS games with a total of 9 to 9.5 have gone UNDER 81% of the time over the past decade. The Mets games this postseason have traded off OVERs and UNDERs every other game so far (game 1 over, game 2 under, game 3 over, game 4 under, game 5 over, game 6 under, game 7 over, game 8....?). The same pattern has emerged for St. Louis over the past four games. Both trends point to an UNDER here. And how can we not back Glavine over Weaver? With Glavine pitching this season, the Mets are 13-2 vs. winning teams. He's also 11-3 on the road at +130 to -130. Weaver is 0-9 vs. great teams that outscore their opponents by half a run or more per game. Mets and the UNDER.