2010 Season MLB Baseball Past Picks
April 16, 2010
New York at St. Louis
Friday 04/16 08:15 PM Eastern
3 units on St. Louis -250 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The oddsmakers sometimes struggle with the top pitchers, especially early in the season because they have to somewhat force ceiling on the odds they can put up. This is a blaring example of just the case. Chris Carpenter is posted here as a 2.5-1 favorite to take down the Mets. The problem is that Carpenter is 42-14 in his last 56 as a home favorite for the Cards, so that puts him at 3-1 odds to win, which has value already. He is also 23-3 when listed at -210 or higher, so that is just about an 8-1 choice to win. The Mets are struggling, and the odds here look chalky, but the reality is that they are not chalky enough, especially with the Mets at 8-20 in their last 28 in St. Louis period. Add in Carpenter on the hill, and St. Louis gets the call.