New York at Miami

I faded Miami this past Saturday behind a fresh call-up for Chicago, and it cashed in a tight one, but the equation tonight is nothing like that one. Miami has dropped the first two games of this series to the Mets and is throwing Janson Junk, a 6-9 arm with a 4.00 ERA that's been steady enough to keep this club competitive all year. New York counters with Robert Stock, a journeyman getting another spot start with a 1-3 record and a 5.81 ERA, a clear step down from the two arms the Mets already used to take the first two games of this set. A home team facing a sweep, getting its more established starter against the other side's emergency option, is exactly the kind of spot that gets mispriced. The number backs it up: a lopsided share of the money, well beyond the ticket count, is already sitting on Miami both on the run line and the moneyline, the kind of gap that tells me sharper money found this same angle before the first pitch. Junk doesn't need to be dominant, just competent, against a Mets lineup that hasn't had to see anything but a fill-in arm all series. Take the Marlins on the runline as my MLB Game of the Week.