New York at Baltimore

Mike Pelfrey is 8-1 while Kevin Millwood is 0-7. The Mets have won seven of their last eight while Baltimore has dropped 12 of their last 14. So why aren't the Mets bigger favorites in this game? This is a classic trap game and the oddsmakers know it. They are baiting bettors into taking the Mets and it's working, as 75% are on New York. But the interleague play advantage goes squarely to the AL and the Mets are just 10-18 on the season on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Mets are just 27-41 on the road as a favorite of -100 to -150. They are also just 10-29 overall on the road over that span when coming off a win. Meanwhile, Millwood is 8-2 as a home dog the past two seasons. I'm taking the home dog here in a contrarian play.