Minnesota at Seattle

Seattle hasn't played its best baseball the last few games, dropping the finale to the Dodgers on Wednesday and getting blown out by Texas before that, but none of that changes who's on the mound tonight. Bryce Miller has been one of the better arms in the league this year, sitting on a 2.75 ERA and a stingy 0.92 WHIP, and he draws a Twins lineup handing the ball right back to Zebby Matthews, who sits at 5.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for Minnesota. That's as clean a pitching mismatch as this slate offers. The Mariners are a strong 30-23 at home, and Minnesota is a middling 25-28 on the road, another layer on an already lopsided matchup. My mathematical model gives Seattle a real, if modest, edge on top of what the raw numbers already say. A rough couple of games doesn't erase what Miller has done all season, and tonight he gets a Twins offense that hasn't given him much reason to worry. Back Seattle tonight.