Minnesota at Seattle

The Seattle Mariners have to like their chances of winning when Felix Hernandez takes the ball. That may be true, and as good as he has been in his career, the Mariners are just 169-137 in games that he starts. The numbers don't get any more impressive when he starts as a home favorite either, as they are just 77-60. They also have a negative 5.6% ROI when he takes to the mound as a home favorite of greater than -180, as we have here today. The M's are overpriced with King Felix on the hill, and there is value on the big dog in this one. The Twins have also done well lately in this spot, entering at 4-1 in their last five as a dog from +151 to +200. Play on Minnesota.