Minnesota at Houston

Houston sits at 42-44, hovering around .500 even while playing decent ball lately, and sends out Peter Lambert with a 3.28 ERA that flatters him. He's a contact-dependent righty with a modest strikeout rate, and the quality of contact he gives up says he's had some help getting to that number. He also stumbled his last time out. Minnesota counters with Zebby Matthews, whose 4.56 ERA is dragged down by two road blowups; strip those out, and the command profile is clean, with 39 strikeouts against 11 walks, and he's coming off a strong outing versus the Dodgers. The Twins handle right-handed pitching and carry real power through the lineup, with Byron Buxton already sitting on 25 home runs. At plus money in a near-even game against a barely-.500 club and a starter living on results more than stuff, the road dog is worth more than the market is paying. The bigger money has sided with Minnesota all day, even with most bettors on Houston. Minnesota is on the right side tonight.