Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Milwaukee stood atop the NL Central from April to the end of August, but a 7-12 September swoon has dimmed their playoff hopes. They got a win yesterday, but this team is still on a 2-11 run on the road. Milwaukee is on a 7-17 run overall and 4-12 against a team with a winning record. Brewers righty Wily Peralta has a 4.32 ERA against the Pirates, including a 4.26 ERA in three outings versus them this season. He faces a talented Pittsburgh offense that is 10th in baseball in runs scored, third in on base percentage, and sixth in slugging and batting average. Pittsburgh has a sizzling 50-30 home record and has won 12 of 14 overall. The Pirates are 36-16 at home against a right-handed starter and 6-0 in Vance Worley's last six starts as a favorite. Worley (3.09 ERA) has had a fine season, and the Pirates are 7-0 when he is a favorite of -110 to -150. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 5-11 in Peralta's last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record, making this a great bounce back spot for the home team. Play Pittsburgh.