Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Milwaukee has been playing its best baseball of the year on the way to clinching a playoff spot, and the reason is that it keeps taking the mound in the biggest spots. Jacob Misiorowski sits atop the league leaderboard in ERA, ranking first among qualified starters with a mark south of 2.00, and my numbers say he's been every bit that good since the summer. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is patching this rotation together. Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller are both done for the season, which is why Lake Bachar is even on the mound tonight in an opener role rather than a traditional turn through the order. His numbers with Pittsburgh look shiny in a vacuum, but the walks have crept up in that role, and this is shaping up as another bullpen game, with the Pirates already on record using eight arms the last time they tried this formula. That's a lot of exposure against a Milwaukee lineup that's clicking with a division title in hand. The gap in stuff and depth here is real, and my read makes Misiorowski the safest side on the board. I'm on the Brewers tonight.