Milwaukee at Cincinnati

These two played into a scoreless 10th on Monday, with the Brewers eventually winning 2-1. Milwaukee won again yesterday, 2-0. Rhett Lowder starts for the home side today, and he'll need to be sharp. Lowder is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA on the season, a number inflated by a shoulder absence mid-June and a rough return to the rotation — but his most recent home outing, a five-plus-inning, one-run effort against Arizona, showed the form he's capable of when healthy. Shane Drohan is on the other side, and while his 3.59 ERA looks reasonable enough, he's allowed three or more runs in two of his last three starts, including four earned on eight hits against Philadelphia. My mathematical model projections lean meaningfully toward Cincinnati — the gap between implied win probabilities at this price and the number the market has assigned points toward value on the Reds. At home, with a pitcher who has the ceiling for a quality start, Cincinnati's price is worth taking. Back the Reds tonight.