Milwaukee at Chicago

I was at this ballpark two nights ago on Cincinnati's run line, and the Reds cashed it with a 7-5 win over this same Cubs pitching staff. Milwaukee brings a much better version of that formula into Wrigley tonight, an 85-53 club that ranks second in the majors in team ERA and third in both runs scored and runs allowed per game, about as complete a roster as there is in baseball right now. Robert Gasser takes the ball with a 4.59 ERA that undersells how the Brewers have gotten it done all year, leaning on pitching depth and an offense capable of grinding out innings against anyone. Chicago counters with the best offense in baseball by team OPS and by runs per game, and Matthew Boyd has been sharp twice in his last five turns, seven innings on two runs against Kansas City and, most recently, six innings on one run against Arizona, enough to make the Cubs the deserved favorite tonight. But this is still a pitching staff that just gave up seven runs in this same building, and Milwaukee's lineup doesn't need to outscore the best offense in the sport outright, just stay within a run and a half of doing it. Milwaukee is the clear side on the runline tonight.