Miami at San Francisco

Florida's 11-19 on the road for a good reason. Their bullpen bites. On the road they have a 6.34 ERA and a 3-10 record. So, even with Dontrelle Willis going today, no lead is safe. So, to be able to fade this team at even money, much like the Colorado/Pittsburgh situation, is a gift. The public is overvaluing Willis here. Let's not forget that with Willis on the mound, the Marlins are 2-11 this season! Dating back to last season Willis is 13-24 vs. winning teams. And, he's never won in San Francisco having gone 0-3 with a 7.83 ERA. Maybe those cross-country trips are just too much for him. Florida is 3-16 after playing 3+ consecutive road games this season. So, can Willis perform a miracle and overcome all this history? Maybe. But, at even money, I'll fade him and the Marlins here.